Background Active surveillance (AS) has been introduced as a management strategy for low-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) due to its typically indolent nature. Despite this, the widespread adoption of AS has encountered several challenges. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the safety of AS related to disease progression and its benefits compared with immediate surgery (IS).
Methods Studies related to AS in patients with low-risk PTC were searched through the Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, and KoreaMed databases. Studies on disease progression, surgical complication, quality of life (QoL), and cost-effectiveness were separately analyzed and narratively synthesized.
Results In the evaluation of disease progression, the proportions of cases with tumor growth ≥3 mm and a volume increase >50% were 2.2%–10.8% and 16.0%–25.5%, respectively. Newly detected lymph node metastasis was identified in 0.0%–1.4% of patients. No significant difference was found between IS and delayed surgery in surgical complications, including vocal cord paralysis and postoperative hypoparathyroidism. AS was associated with better QoL than IS. Studies on the cost-effectiveness of AS reported inconsistent data, but AS was more cost-effective when quality-adjusted life years were considered.
Conclusion AS is an acceptable management option for patients with low-risk PTC based on the low rate of disease progression and the absence of an increased mortality risk. AS has additional benefits, including improved QoL and greater QoL-based cost-effectiveness.
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Background While the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is a measure of insulin resistance, its association with cardiovascular disease (CVD) has not been well elucidated. We evaluated the TyG index for prediction of CVDs in a prospective large communitybased cohort.
Methods Individuals 40 to 70 years old were prospectively followed for a median 15.6 years. The TyG index was calculated as the Ln [fasting triglycerides (mg/dL)×fasting glucose (mg/dL)/2]. CVDs included any acute myocardial infarction, coronary artery disease or cerebrovascular disease. We used a Cox proportional hazards model to estimate CVD risks according to quartiles of the TyG index and plotted the receiver operating characteristics curve for the incident CVD.
Results Among 8,511 subjects (age 51.9±8.8 years; 47.5% males), 931 (10.9%) had incident CVDs during the follow-up. After adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, total cholesterol, smoking, alcohol, exercise, and C-reactive protein, subjects in the highest TyG quartile had 36% increased risk of incident CVD compared with the lowest TyG quartile (hazard ratio, 1.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.10 to 1.68). Carotid plaque, assessed by ultrasonography was more frequent in subjects in the higher quartile of TyG index (P for trend=0.049 in men and P for trend <0.001 in women). The TyG index had a higher predictive power for CVDs than the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) (area under the curve, 0.578 for TyG and 0.543 for HOMA-IR). Adding TyG index on diabetes or hypertension alone gave sounder predictability for CVDs.
Conclusion The TyG index is independently associated with future CVDs in 16 years of follow-up in large, prospective Korean cohort.
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Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism Big Data Articles (National Health Insurance Service Database)
Background The severity of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. We aimed to generate a risk model for predicting insulin-requiring GDM before pregnancy in Korean women.
Methods A total of 417,210 women who received a health examination within 52 weeks before pregnancy and delivered between 2011 and 2015 were recruited from the Korean National Health Insurance database. The risk prediction model was created using a sample of 70% of the participants, while the remaining 30% were used for internal validation. Risk scores were assigned based on the hazard ratios for each risk factor in the multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model. Six risk variables were selected, and a risk nomogram was created to estimate the risk of insulin-requiring GDM.
Results A total of 2,891 (0.69%) women developed insulin-requiring GDM. Age, body mass index (BMI), current smoking, fasting blood glucose (FBG), total cholesterol, and γ-glutamyl transferase were significant risk factors for insulin-requiring GDM and were incorporated into the risk model. Among the variables, old age, high BMI, and high FBG level were the main contributors to an increased risk of insulin-requiring GDM. The concordance index of the risk model for predicting insulin-requiring GDM was 0.783 (95% confidence interval, 0.766 to 0.799). The validation cohort’s incidence rates for insulin-requiring GDM were consistent with the risk model’s predictions.
Conclusion A novel risk engine was generated to predict insulin-requiring GDM among Korean women. This model may provide helpful information for identifying high-risk women and enhancing prepregnancy care.
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Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism Big Data Articles (National Health Insurance Service Database)
Background The present study investigates whether modifiable behavioral factors of current cigarette smoking, heavy alcohol consumption, and regular exercise are associated with risk of lower extremity amputation (LEA) in diabetic patients.
Methods A total of 2,644,440 diabetic patients (aged ≥20 years) was analyzed using the database of the Korean National Health Insurance Service. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to assess adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for the behavioral factors with risk of LEA under adjustment for potential confounders.
Results The risk of LEA was significantly increased by current cigarette smoking and heavy alcohol consumption (HR, 1.436; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.367 to 1.508 and HR, 1.082; 95% CI, 1.011 to 1.158) but significantly decreased with regular exercise (HR, 0.745; 95% CI, 0.706 to 0.786) after adjusting for age, sex, smoking, alcohol consumption, exercise, low income, hypertension, dyslipidemia, body mass index, using insulin or oral antidiabetic drugs, and diabetic duration. A synergistically increased risk of LEA was observed with larger number of risky behaviors.
Conclusion Modification of behaviors of current smoking, heavy alcohol intake, and exercise prevents LEA and can improve physical, emotional, and social quality of life in diabetic patients.
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Background Since image-based fracture prediction models using deep learning are lacking, we aimed to develop an X-ray-based fracture prediction model using deep learning with longitudinal data.
Methods This study included 1,595 participants aged 50 to 75 years with at least two lumbosacral radiographs without baseline fractures from 2010 to 2015 at Seoul National University Hospital. Positive and negative cases were defined according to whether vertebral fractures developed during follow-up. The cases were divided into training (n=1,416) and test (n=179) sets. A convolutional neural network (CNN)-based prediction algorithm, DeepSurv, was trained with images and baseline clinical information (age, sex, body mass index, glucocorticoid use, and secondary osteoporosis). The concordance index (C-index) was used to compare performance between DeepSurv and the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) and Cox proportional hazard (CoxPH) models.
Results Of the total participants, 1,188 (74.4%) were women, and the mean age was 60.5 years. During a mean follow-up period of 40.7 months, vertebral fractures occurred in 7.5% (120/1,595) of participants. In the test set, when DeepSurv learned with images and clinical features, it showed higher performance than FRAX and CoxPH in terms of C-index values (DeepSurv, 0.612; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.571 to 0.653; FRAX, 0.547; CoxPH, 0.594; 95% CI, 0.552 to 0.555). Notably, the DeepSurv method without clinical features had a higher C-index (0.614; 95% CI, 0.572 to 0.656) than that of FRAX in women.
Conclusion DeepSurv, a CNN-based prediction algorithm using baseline image and clinical information, outperformed the FRAX and CoxPH models in predicting osteoporotic fracture from spine radiographs in a longitudinal cohort.
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Background Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) has been reported to be associated with increased cardiovascular disease, aging and insulin resistance. Despite the debate of causal contribution of CHIP on metabolic diseases, we want to explore whether CHIP is related to diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN).
Methods This study analyzed the prevalence of CHIP in patients with type 2 diabetes classified according to DPN status. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between CHIP and DPN.
Results CHIP was more prevalent in subjects without DPN than those with DPN (19.9% vs. 8.8%, respectively; P=0.013). Individuals having any CHIP, or DNA methyltransferase 3A (DNMT3A) CHIP were less likely to have any abnormality shown in DPN test; the adjusted odds ratio were 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73 to 1.00) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.56 to 0.89), respectively. Interestingly, DNMT3A CHIP showed the negative association, but Tet methylcytosine dioxygenase 2 (TET2) CHIP showed the positive association with abnormal feet electrochemical skin conductance level.
Conclusion On the contrary to expectations, CHIP was negatively associated with DPN. Functional linking between the mutation in hematopoietic cells and DPN, and the opposite role of DNMT3A and TET2 should be investigated.
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Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism Big Data Articles (National Health Insurance Service Database)
Background Elevated γ-glutamyl transferase (γ-GTP) level is associated with metabolic syndrome, impaired glucose tolerance, and insulin resistance, which are risk factors for type 2 diabetes. We aimed to investigate the association of cumulative exposure to high γ-GTP level with risk of diabetes.
Methods Using nationally representative data from the Korean National Health Insurance system, 346,206 people who were free of diabetes and who underwent 5 consecutive health examinations from 2005 to 2009 were followed to the end of 2018. High γ-GTP level was defined as those in the highest quartile, and the number of exposures to high γ-GTP level ranged from 0 to 5. Hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for diabetes were analyzed using the multivariable Cox proportional-hazards model.
Results The mean follow-up duration was 9.2±1.0 years, during which 15,183 (4.4%) patients developed diabetes. There was a linear increase in the incidence rate and the risk of diabetes with cumulative exposure to high γ-GTP level. After adjusting for possible confounders, the HR of diabetes in subjects with five consecutive high γ-GTP levels were 2.60 (95% CI, 2.47 to 2.73) in men and 3.05 (95% CI, 2.73 to 3.41) in women compared with those who never had a high γ-GTP level. Similar results were observed in various subgroup and sensitivity analyses.
Conclusion There was a linear relationship between cumulative exposure to high γ-GTP level and risk of diabetes. Monitoring and lowering γ-GTP level should be considered for prevention of diabetes in the general population.
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Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism Big Data Articles (National Health Insurance Service Database)
Background Metabolic abnormalities, such as impaired fasting glucose (IFG), are dynamic phenomena; however, it is unclear whether the timing of IFG exposure and cumulative exposure to IFG are related to cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality risk.
Methods Data were extracted from a nationwide population-based cohort in South Korea for adults (n=2,206,679) who were free of diabetes and had 4 years of consecutive health examination data. Fasting blood glucose levels of 100 to 125 mg/dL were defined as IFG, and the number of IFG diagnoses for each adult in the 4-year period was tabulated as the IFG exposure score (range, 0 to 4). Adults with persistent IFG for the 4-year period received a score of 4.
Results The median follow-up was 8.2 years. There were 24,820 deaths, 13,502 cases of stroke, and 13,057 cases of myocardial infarction (MI). IFG exposure scores of 1, 2, 3, and 4 were associated with all-cause mortality (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08 to 1.15; aHR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.20; aHR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.15 to 1.25; aHR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.25, respectively) compared with an IFG exposure score of 0. Adjusting for hypertension and dyslipidemia attenuated the slightly increased risk of MI or stroke associated with high IFG exposure scores, but significant associations for allcause mortality remained.
Conclusion The intensity of IFG exposure was associated with an elevated risk of all-cause mortality, independent of cardiovascular risk factors. The association between IFG exposure and CVD risk was largely mediated by the coexistence of dyslipidemia and hypertension.
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Background In non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), transient elastography (TE) is an accurate non-invasive method to identify patients at risk of advanced fibrosis (AF). We developed a diabetes-specific, non-invasive liver fibrosis score based on TE to facilitate AF risk stratification, especially for use in diabetes clinics where TE is not readily available.
Methods Seven hundred sixty-six adults with type 2 diabetes and NAFLD were recruited and randomly divided into a training set (n=534) for the development of diabetes fibrosis score (DFS), and a testing set (n=232) for internal validation. DFS identified patients with AF on TE, defined as liver stiffness (LS) ≥9.6 kPa, based on a clinical model comprising significant determinants of LS with the lowest Akaike information criteria. The performance of DFS was compared with conventional liver fibrosis scores (NFS, FIB-4, and APRI), using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (NPV).
Results DFS comprised body mass index, platelet, aspartate aminotransferase, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and albuminuria, five routine measurements in standard diabetes care. Derived low and high DFS cut-offs were 0.1 and 0.3, with 90% sensitivity and 90% specificity, respectively. Both cut-offs provided better NPVs of >90% than conventional fibrosis scores. The AUROC of DFS for AF on TE was also higher (P<0.01) than the conventional fibrosis scores, being 0.85 and 0.81 in the training and testing sets, respectively.
Conclusion Compared to conventional fibrosis scores, DFS, with a high NPV, more accurately identified diabetes patients at-risk of AF, who need further evaluation by hepatologists.
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Background Most of the widely used prediction models for cardiovascular disease are known to overestimate the risk of this disease in Asians. We aimed to generate a risk model for predicting myocardial infarction (MI) in middle-aged Korean subjects with type 2 diabetes.
Methods A total of 1,272,992 subjects with type 2 diabetes aged 40 to 64 who received health examinations from 2009 to 2012 were recruited from the Korean National Health Insurance database. Seventy percent of the subjects (n=891,095) were sampled to develop the risk prediction model, and the remaining 30% (n=381,897) were used for internal validation. A Cox proportional hazards regression model and Cox coefficients were used to derive a risk scoring system. Twelve risk variables were selected, and a risk nomogram was created to estimate the 5-year risk of MI.
Results During 7.1 years of follow-up, 24,809 cases of MI (1.9%) were observed. Age, sex, smoking status, regular exercise, body mass index, chronic kidney disease, duration of diabetes, number of anti-diabetic medications, fasting blood glucose, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and atrial fibrillation were significant risk factors for the development of MI and were incorporated into the risk model. The concordance index for MI prediction was 0.682 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.678 to 0.686) in the development cohort and 0.669 (95% CI, 0.663 to 0.675) in the validation cohort.
Conclusion A novel risk engine was generated for predicting the development of MI among middle-aged Korean adults with type 2 diabetes. This model may provide useful information for identifying high-risk patients and improving quality of care.
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Background This study assessed the proportion of risk-stratified Korean patients with dyslipidemia achieving their low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) targets as defined by the European Society of Cardiology/European Atherosclerosis Society (ESC/EAS) (2011) guidelines while receiving lipid-modifying treatments (LMTs).
Methods In this multicenter, cross-sectional, observational study, we evaluated data from Korean patients aged ≥19 years who were receiving LMTs for ≥3 months and had an LDL-C value within the previous 12 months on the same LMT. Data were collected for demographics, cardiovascular (CV) risk factors, medical history, and healthcare consumption. Patients were risk-stratified according to the ESC Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) chart and LDL-C target achievement rate was assessed.
Results Guideline-based risk-stratification of the 1,034 patients showed the majority (72.2%) to be in the very high-risk category. Investigators’ assessment of risk was underestimated in 71.6% compared to ESC/EAS guidelines. Overall LDL-C target achievement rate was 44.3%; target achievement was the highest (66.0%) in moderate-risk patients and the lowest (39.0%) in very high-risk patients. Overall 97.1% patients were receiving statin therapy, mostly as a single-agent (89.2%). High-intensity statins and the highest permissible dose of high-intensity statins had been prescribed to only 9.1% and 7.3% patients in the very high-risk group, respectively. Physician satisfaction with patients’ LDL-C levels was the primary reason for non-intensification of statin therapy.
Conclusion Achievement of target LDL-C level is suboptimal in Korean patients with dyslipidemia, especially in those at very high-risk of CV events. Current practices in LMTs need to be improved based on precise CV risk evaluation posed by dyslipidemia.
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Background The value of the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) and the trabecular bone score (TBS) for assessing osteoporotic fracture risk has not been fully elucidated in Koreans. We conducted this study to clarify the predictive value of FRAX adjusted by TBS for osteoporotic fractures in Korean women.
Methods After screening 7,192 eligible subjects from the Ansung cohort, 1,165 women aged 45 to 76 years with available bone mineral density (BMD) and TBS data were enrolled in this study. We assessed their clinical risk factors for osteoporotic fractures and evaluated the predictive value of FRAX with or without BMD and TBS.
Results During the mean follow-up period of 7.5 years, 99 (8.5%) women suffered major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs) and 28 (2.4%) experienced hip fractures. FRAX without BMD, BMD-adjusted FRAX, and TBS-adjusted FRAX were significantly associated with the risk of MOFs (hazard ratio [HR] per percent increase, 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03 to 1.14; HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.15; and HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.13, respectively). However, BMD-adjusted FRAX and TBS-adjusted FRAX did not predict MOFs better than FRAX without BMD based on the Harrell’s C statistic. FRAX probabilities showed limited value for predicting hip fractures. The cut-off values of FRAX without BMD, FRAX with BMD, and FRAX with BMD adjusted by TBS for predicting MOFs were 7.2%, 5.0%, and 6.7%, respectively.
Conclusion FRAX with BMD and TBS adjustment did not show better predictive value for osteoporotic fractures in this study than FRAX without adjustment. Moreover, the cut-off values of FRAX probabilities for treatment might be lower in Korean women than in other countries.
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